Commodity wrap: Oil slips below $100; gold rallies, silver hits 3‑week high

Brent crude oil reversed gains from earlier in the day and dropped below $100 per barrel on Thursday on hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, which could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

Gold rose for the third consecutive session and was comfortably above $4,700 per ounce.

Silver prices rose to a near three-week high to above $82 an ounce. 

Meanwhile, aluminium fell below $3,500 per ton, while copper prices on the London Metal Exchange were largely steady. 

Industrial metals experienced a rally during Wednesday’s trading session.

This surge was attributed to an improved risk appetite, stemming from signs of progress toward a US-Iran deal, which also mitigated concerns about a wider energy shock. 

However, these gains were partially reversed on Thursday morning as the market awaited Iran’s official response to the US proposal.

Brent below $100

Oil prices fell by about 4% on Thursday, with the Brent crude benchmark dropping below $100 a barrel. 

The Brent contract was last at $97.43 per barrel, down 3.8%, while the West Texas Intermediate contract was at $91.36 per barrel, down 3.9% from the previous close. 

The decline extended previous losses, fueled by renewed optimism for a US-Iran peace agreement that could lead to the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices were highly volatile, with Brent swinging from a 1% gain to a decline of as much as 4.6% compared with the previous close.

The sharp moves followed a steep selloff on Wednesday, when both major benchmarks fell more than 7% to two-week lows, as optimism grew around a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East.

Reports indicated on Thursday that the US and Iran are nearing a limited, temporary truce. 

The proposed framework would halt the conflict, according to a draft, but would not resolve the most difficult issues.

This arrangement is centered on a short-term memorandum rather than a full-scale peace agreement.

Reports cited by analysts included one from Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya news channel, which suggested that agreements had been reached to alleviate the US blockade in return for the progressive reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Additionally, Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Iran had consented to move its existing 60% enriched uranium reserves to a separate country.

Gold extends gains

Increasing optimism about a peace agreement between the US and Iran helped to ease concerns about inflation and the prospect of prolonged higher interest rates, which in turn supported gold. 

As a result, gold prices advanced for the third session in a row on Thursday.

The decline in energy prices put downward pressure on yields.

Meanwhile, the dollar remained near its pre-conflict valuation, which provided support for the yellow metal.

“The potential easing in energy prices gives the Fed more room to cut rates, which is positive for gold. Silver outperformed, supported by lower yields and stronger risk appetite,” Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Economics said in a note. 

At the time of writing, the COMEX gold contract was at $4,768.20 per ounce, up 1.6%, while silver was at $82.535 per ounce, up 6.7% from the previous close. 

TD Securities projects that gold could climb above $5,200 per ounce, stating this is achievable once the inflationary pressures caused by oil prices and the current conflict subside.

Investors are focused on Friday’s monthly US employment report, as it will be key in determining the Federal Reserve’s path for monetary policy this year.

In other news, data indicate that China’s central bank continued its gold accumulation in April, marking the 18th consecutive month of such activity.

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